A New Age of Climate Extremes

The UN World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate Update 2026, released Monday on the first day of COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, shows that the past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record. 2026 is on track to be one of the warmest, which would confirm the past four years as the top four. 

The global average surface temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. The ocean absorbs 90% of excess heat, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth successive year of record ocean warmth.

“We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in a statement. 

“Hundreds of millions of people this year have been exposed to unbearable extreme heat, whilst the catastrophic ice and rock collapse and flash floods in Nepal highlighted the compound risks facing communities in fragile, warming high-mountain terrain.” 

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, released in October, found the world on a path towards 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming this century. Even if all pledges were implemented, it could still see 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming.

One of this COP’s core tasks is figuring out how to live with that reality. Climate adaptation and much-needed finance are at the top of the agenda, alongside a continued push to cut emissions.

Five years after the Glasgow Declaration, tourism has plenty of climate commitments but little shared proof of what they’ve achieved. A report on the implementation of the declaration as of 2024, published in 2026, shows a mixed bag. 

It states 57% of industry plans have company-specific targets, a significant increase from 29% in 2023. Some 96% of plans have a baseline year, rising from 67% in 2023. Climate adaptation is factored into 40% of plans, versus 2023’s 32%. Climate justice shows slower progress: 28% connect their plans to climate justice, up from 24%. 

From my reporting this week, it seems the industry is still split on what and how to measure. That divide is the backdrop to this year’s annual climate conference. Over a two-week stretch, world leaders and civil society will attempt to find a way forward. 

Tourism relies on functioning communities, infrastructure and natural systems to run trips, explore the natural world, and make destinations attractive. Climate change puts all of this at risk, from communities being unable to adapt to sea level rise to dying corals reducing the viability of snorkeling hubs to rail infrastructure buckling under extreme heat. 

You can read more on expectations from COP below. If you’re on the ground and want to share your experience, drop me a note on [email protected] or on Signal at tjl.13.