Hoteliers don't usually raise full-year guidance heading into a spike in fuel prices. Yet Marriott and Hilton both lifted full-year forecasts, while none of the other listed hotel groups trimmed theirs. One key reason stands out.
Demand is broadening beyond luxury.
Marriott posted a clear rebound in limited-service hotels after a soft prior quarter and year. Hilton echoed the pattern, as my colleague Luke Martin reported.
Why? Pricier transatlantic airfares, courtesy of jet fuel, appear to be nudging would-be flyers onto the interstate. Mid-market roadside hotels are benefiting. Plus: construction workers building AI data centers in Ohio and Arizona aren't booking the Bulgari.
Watch the "booking window."
One caveat on all this news is timing. Most travelers book hotel stays less than 3 weeks out.
Hotel executives still don't know if higher gas pump prices will be sustained and if consumers will respond with a pullback in spending.
Even so, executives raised guidance with eyes open. Here’s why:
Last year's numbers were softened by tariff-related demand shocks, lowering the comparison bar helpfully for 2026.
U.S. tax rebates, along with a capex boom in AI infrastructure, should keep mid-market business travel humming.
Wyndham CEO Geoff Ballotti appeared on CNBC to note that his hotels didn't see any notable decline in travel demand during the last gasoline price spikes since 2000. So even a prolonged surge in oil prices might not dampen second-quarter results.
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