Blame the Groundhog

Oddly, I celebrate Groundhog Day each year because my brother does. 

Here’s the backstory: Tommy is a Californian and called me on February 2 some years ago, ecstatic, to inform me of a few things that I didn't know. 1) he had traveled on a red eye to Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania the night before 2) he was a fan of Phil and 3) that year, the chubby rodent did not see his shadow. Spring was to come early. I could barely hear him over the phone because of all the celebrating going on in the background.

This year, when Phil did see his shadow, not only was I nonplussed, but I expected a once in a lifetime cosmic event that would cause his shadow to be longer and wider than normal thus sending us into a perpetual age of neverending cold and darkness. Winter is Coming as the Northerners say.

I think I need to go on vacation.

Perhaps I should take a page from the Europeans – who travel always and often. See what they're up to. Where they're going.

Oh? What's that? They're not coming to the United States.

Bookings from Europe to the U.S. for July 2026 fell 14.2% compared to the same month last year, according to data from Cirium, which pulls from third-party sources including online travel agencies and the global distribution system used by airlines and travel agents. The steepest declines were from Frankfurt, down 36%, Barcelona at 26%, and Amsterdam at 23%.

The booking patterns track with the broader trend. International travel to the U.S. fell for the eighth straight month in December. Several European countries have issued advisories for travel to the U.S. due to ICE activity, reports of tourists being detained and mistreated, and a Trump administration policy that only recognizes two genders. Talk of boycotting the World Cup this summer had grown among European officials following President Donald Trump's push to acquire Greenland.

Airline executives have been aware of the problem. Last year, Delta Air Lines president Glen Hauenstein said the carrier had seen a "significant drop-off" in bookings from Europe. United Airlines chief commercial officer Andrew Nocella said last April that travel from Europe was down 6%.

More recently, the tone has shifted — slightly. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said last month he was hopeful the World Cup could break the "international logjam," according to The Wall Street Journal. "You'll have hundreds of thousands of international visitors, many of whom may be, for the first time, coming to the U.S.," Bastian said.

The airlines aren't panicking. The majority of their traffic originates domestically — United has noted that U.S. point of origin makes up around 80% of its sales. But the Cirium data also showed bookings from the U.S. to Europe for July 2026 were down around 7.3%.

Phil saw his shadow. The Europeans aren't coming. And the winter, it seems, is going to be a long one.