TODAY'S LEAD SIGNAL
A research analyst estimates Booking Holdings books more B2B room nights than Expedia — roughly 196 million to 170 million over the past year — challenging the assumption that Expedia leads travel's business-to-business market. The estimate is plausible, but adjusting two of the analyst’s underlying assumptions by just one percentage point cuts Booking's estimated B2B room nights by 37 million, enough to drop it below Expedia's total.
TODAY'S DECISION SIGNAL
Time Horizon: 6–18 months
Do OTA equity analysts and investors rebuild valuation models now around a Booking B2B segment that may already outsize Expedia's — or wait for Booking's consolidated unit to surface real numbers in early 2027?
MOST EXPOSED
OTA equity analysts recalibrating B2B segment models · Booking Holdings investors underwriting an undisclosed number · Expedia investors watching a growth lead narrow · Hotel B2B distribution partners gaining renewed repricing leverage
ASK SKIFT
OTA disclosure gaps have let market-share assumptions calcify for years — Expedia discloses its B2B numbers, Booking doesn't, and that gap alone shaped the old consensus that Expedia led.
SIGNAL STACK
Distribution — What Hotelbeds' Shrinking Margins Mean for Hotel Distribution — Rafat Ali
Policy — Canadians Were Just Starting to Come Around to U.S. Travel. Then Came the Trade War. — Bailey Schulz
Commerce — Airbnb Is Testing Lower Fees for Hosts Who Bring Their Own Guests — Sarah Kopit
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Booking's consolidated B2B unit: formal launch timeline under Agoda CEO Omri Morgenshtern
Booking and Expedia's next earnings calls: whether either company adjusts B2B disclosure language after this estimate
Canadian arrival data: whether the trade dispute reverses four months of year-over-year gains
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TODAY'S DATA SIGNAL

Travel agents haven't gone away, according to Skift Research. OTAs remain the dominant channel at 58%, with booking direct close behind at 50%, but a quarter of travelers keeping agents in the mix shows the channel still has staying power even in a self-service-first market.
MORE SIGNALS
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SKIFT PODCAST NETWORK
StayTerra is building a platform of premier vacation rental brands backed by Garnett Station Partners and Bessemer Venture Partners, but new CEO Amy Kothari has a clear philosophy about how to get there.
In this clip from Good Morning Hospitality, A Skift Podcast, she joins Brandreth Canaley and Michael Goldin to break down why scale has to follow quality and not the other way around, why chasing unit growth before brand strength leads to churn, and how StayTerra is thinking about market density over flag planting.
SKIFT TRAVEL 200
How are public travel companies performing around the world? The Skift Travel 200 pulls the data you need to understand global market movements. Paid subscribers get full access here.
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