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TODAY'S LEAD SIGNAL

A research analyst estimates Booking Holdings books more B2B room nights than Expedia — roughly 196 million to 170 million over the past year — challenging the assumption that Expedia leads travel's business-to-business market. The estimate is plausible, but adjusting two of the analyst’s underlying assumptions by just one percentage point cuts Booking's estimated B2B room nights by 37 million, enough to drop it below Expedia's total.

TODAY'S DECISION SIGNAL

Time Horizon: 6–18 months

Do OTA equity analysts and investors rebuild valuation models now around a Booking B2B segment that may already outsize Expedia's — or wait for Booking's consolidated unit to surface real numbers in early 2027?

MOST EXPOSED

OTA equity analysts recalibrating B2B segment models · Booking Holdings investors underwriting an undisclosed number · Expedia investors watching a growth lead narrow · Hotel B2B distribution partners gaining renewed repricing leverage

ASK SKIFT

OTA disclosure gaps have let market-share assumptions calcify for years — Expedia discloses its B2B numbers, Booking doesn't, and that gap alone shaped the old consensus that Expedia led.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

Booking's consolidated B2B unit: formal launch timeline under Agoda CEO Omri Morgenshtern

Booking and Expedia's next earnings calls: whether either company adjusts B2B disclosure language after this estimate

Canadian arrival data: whether the trade dispute reverses four months of year-over-year gains

Skift Aviation Forum

The people setting aviation's agenda for the year ahead are in one room at the TWA Hotel, JFK on November 12.

This year's speakers include the leaders of International Airlines Group, Breeze Airways, Embraer Commercial Aviation, and Air Canada, joining 300+ attendees from 176 companies across profitability, capacity, loyalty, and AI.
Early bird prices end tonight.

TODAY'S DATA SIGNAL

Travel agents haven't gone away, according to Skift Research. OTAs remain the dominant channel at 58%, with booking direct close behind at 50%, but a quarter of travelers keeping agents in the mix shows the channel still has staying power even in a self-service-first market.

MORE SIGNALS

How SingleThread Is Growing Without Copying Itself

Cheval Is Riding Out Dubai’s Demand Slump On Long-Stay Guests

Motel 6’s Power: What Prism’s Annual Report Reveals Ahead of Its IPO

CAPITAL ONE + SKIFT

As travelers prioritize seamless, end-to-end journeys, Capital One is moving beyond booking to build a fully integrated travel ecosystem, reshaping how brands reach and engage customers along the way.

For $7 a week, Skift gives you something the industry is missing – the full picture. Subscribe today for 25% off.

SKIFT PODCAST NETWORK

StayTerra is building a platform of premier vacation rental brands backed by Garnett Station Partners and Bessemer Venture Partners, but new CEO Amy Kothari has a clear philosophy about how to get there.

In this clip from Good Morning Hospitality, A Skift Podcast, she joins Brandreth Canaley and Michael Goldin to break down why scale has to follow quality and not the other way around, why chasing unit growth before brand strength leads to churn, and how StayTerra is thinking about market density over flag planting.

SKIFT TRAVEL 200

How are public travel companies performing around the world? The Skift Travel 200 pulls the data you need to understand global market movements. Paid subscribers get full access here.

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