You don't tune into a Hilton earnings call to sing the blues, to paraphrase a colleague.
CEO Chris Nassetta is known for his optimism in all seasons, and he delivered once again during the first-quarter call. About 75% of Hilton's business is in the U.S., and Nassetta said he expects the U.S. will be relatively insulated from global economic uncertainty this year.
Nassetta's optimism rests on a thesis he has been workshopping since mid-2025: the lower and middle ends of the consumer base will spend more on hotels thanks to factors such as cooling housing inflation, anticipated Fed interest rate cuts, tax refunds, and a frenzy of data center construction to support AI.
Yes, Middle East hotel revenue per available room could drop in half in the second quarter, his team said. But that's only 3% of the business.
Call it the American exceptionalism argument. Europe and Asia may be seeing a softening in travel demand amid the global energy crisis. But either the Iran war will be quickly resolved, or the U.S. will not feel significant knock-on effects of global supply chain and financial market disruptions.
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