Happy Memorial Day weekend, readers in the United States. For many of us, it's the unofficial kickoff to summer. For those in Washington, D.C., it means something very different — the start of the final sprint to the November midterm elections.

It's impossible to overstate how important these are to the Trump administration, or more specifically, the reigning part of the Republican Party. It's funny, then, that this week's commentary on the point came from across the pond.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary, never one to mince words on an earnings call, spent a chunk of his Monday Q&A tying his airline's fuel outlook directly to Trump's political calendar. "I have been reliably advised by a number of senior U.S. politicians that Memorial Day is when those midterm [campaigns] kick off, and that there will need to be a resolution of the situation by the end of May," O'Leary told analysts, referring to the conflict in Iran and the broader instability in the Strait of Hormuz.

He kept returning to it. "I think Trump will find some resolution or declare a victory by the end of May when the midterm electioneering kicks off," O'Leary said. And then, the kicker: "I don't think the uncertainty in the Middle East can continue into June, July, August, or Trump will lose not just the House but the Senate as well."

The Irishman running Europe's biggest airline is, essentially, betting his fuel hedges on the assumption that Donald Trump cannot afford high gas prices heading into November.

That's a lot to chew on. But O'Leary's logic is also a useful frame for what comes next, particularly for the travel industry. Because between now and November, the United States is co-hosting the World Cup. And the soft data is already in.

A survey released by the American Hotel & Lodging Association earlier this month found nearly 80% of members said World Cup bookings are pacing below original forecasts. Some hoteliers called the tournament a "non-event." Roughly 70% blamed visa barriers and geopolitical concerns for the softness in international demand.

The administration has tried to ease at least one piece of that equation. Last week, the State Department waived the up-to-$15,000 visa bond requirement for confirmed World Cup ticket holders from 50 countries — including five that have qualified for the tournament: Algeria, Cape Verde, the Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tunisia. FIFA had requested the waiver, per the Associated Press, and both State and DHS signed off. But the waiver only applies to fans who bought tickets and opted into FIFA's Priority Appointment Scheduling System by April 15.

That championship now sits squarely in the same window O'Leary is watching. Tourist arrivals to the U.S. fell 5.5% last year. Inbound travel isn't expected to hit pre-Covid levels until 2029. A U.S. Travel Association survey found 34% of international soccer fans cited higher visa application fees as a concern about traveling here. More than 120 organizations have endorsed a travel advisory warning World Cup visitors to "exercise caution" in the U.S. due to immigration enforcement.

So here's what the administration is running between now and November: a Middle East situation that, per O'Leary's sources, needs resolution by month's end. A World Cup that's already underperforming on bookings. A visa policy that's been loosened just enough to wave through ticket holders, but not enough to move the broader inbound numbers. And midterm voters watching all of it.

O'Leary is hedged through 2027. The rest of us are not.