Despite the patterns, despite the predictions, despite the Canadians, I still thought that when the World Cup finally arrived, there would be a U.S. inbound tourism bump. For June, however, it was not to be.

It will take time to fully understand the tournament's impact on the business of travel — the numbers, the reasons behind them, and how politics shaped both. But the early read is not the one anyone in the industry was hoping for.

Rewind to last November. In the Oval Office, President Trump stood beside FIFA President Gianni Infantino — months before their red-card conversations — and promised the tournament would deliver a $30 billion economic impact and nearly 200,000 jobs. His administration, he said, had worked "tirelessly" to "ensure that soccer fans from all around the world are properly vetted and able to come to the United States next summer easily."

But new U.S. government data, reported this week by Skift's Bailey Schulz and Rashaad Jorden, shows total overseas visitor arrivals fell 1.8% year-over-year in June to 2.8 million. That follows a 3.4% annual decline in June 2025. Foreign international air passenger arrivals barely moved, growing just 0.2%, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office.

So the tournament didn't lift all boats. But it did lift some.

Arrivals from the United Kingdom were up nearly 17%, with England playing June matches near Boston, Dallas, and New Jersey, and Scotland near Boston and Miami. Ecuador — which played in Philadelphia, Kansas City, and New Jersey — surged more than 50%. Colombia, which played Miami on June 27, was up 21.4%.

And then there's the other column. Brazil was down 10.3%. France, down 15.3%. Germany — whose superfan Freddy became a viral tournament mascot in his own right — was down nearly 20%. Among the top 20 source countries, the double-digit declines kept coming: Italy (18.7%), Argentina (15.6%), Ireland (10.1%), and South Korea (30.9%).

And the Canadians? Skift reports that Canadian-resident return trips rose 3.2% year-over-year in June, driven by a 5.2% jump in return trips by car. But it gets confusing. Statistics Canada itself flagged the gain as a "base-year effect" — visits dropped so hard last year that the rebound is bouncing off the floor. Measured against June 2024, return trips were still down 28.7%. Flight Centre Canada reported June bookings for U.S. departures through year-end were down 27%. "Sentiment toward U.S. travel remains fragile," said the agency's Amra Durakovic, "and right now, booking energy is clearly flowing elsewhere."

The grudge, in other words, holds.

The tournament runs through tomorrow's final, and some expect demand to have built for the later rounds. But the signals from people who watch this closely are muted. Delta Air Lines Chief Commercial Officer Joe Esposito told analysts on a recent earnings call that the tournament didn't make "a huge difference to the quarter."

But it’s not a straight-up bust. Hotel occupancy in a number of host markets has been down — but the travelers who did show up are spending. Hotels are reporting gains in revenue per available room, and Bank of America reported a 5% annual increase in total card spending across World Cup host cities between June 10 and July 5. 

July’s numbers are still incoming. So stay tuned.