Hello, readers! I've missed you! I was away for a couple weeks and look what I've come back to – a World Cup celebration of … America?!

The social media phenomenon that is Freddy, the Tartan Army, and ranch dressing has been a delightful surprise. Especially for a curmudgeonly and cynical journalist like me. I keep wondering what it must be like to be an executive at Buc-ee’s or Waffle House right now (and if you’re one and happen to be reading this, please let me know!)

How does this tie into the Trump Effect? Well, it doesn't. The one thing I've noticed specifically about all the videos from delirious international fans hopped up on gas station brisket and Boston Lager is just how apolitical they are. 

President Trump will, surely, benefit from this international goodwill toward the United States. I'll make a prediction, even: the World Cup halo will stick around, and those abysmal U.S. inbound tourism numbers will start to improve now (barring another glaring international crisis that sullies all this goodwill).

But the thing about a halo is that it doesn't always pay the bills (I am, after all, still that curmudgeonly journo).

One week into the tournament, the hotel data is in, and it tells a less rosy story than the brisket videos suggest. The good news – revenue per available room is up across every host market CoStar tracked, anywhere from 24% to more than 100% during the first three match days. The catch, hotels are largely getting there by charging more, not by filling more rooms.

In fact, of the nine host markets CoStar tracked, only three — San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles — saw occupancy actually increase on match days. The other six posted declines, ranging from 4% in Boston to nearly 35% in Guadalajara. So the rooms that are booked are pricey, but a lot of beds are sitting empty.

A 2025 FIFA report said host city hotels had been expecting record occupancies. The surge they priced in months ago hasn't shown up yet. New York is a relative bright spot, with average daily rates up nearly 19% and bookings up 11%. Though credit where it's due. The Knicks just won the NBA Finals, and no one's entirely sure which sport is doing the lifting. But even there, game-night occupancies are still below expectations.

Then there are the bright spots. Mexico City's RevPAR more than doubled — up 133% — and its room rates, along with Guadalajara's, more than doubled from last year. The strongest performers tend to be cities with a second reason to visit: Philadelphia's July 4 rates are getting a lift from both a round-of-16 match and America's 250th birthday party. 

The short-term rental crowd also got a little ahead of itself. AirDNA's Jamie Lane said hosts set rates sky-high expecting two or three times last year's prices, then slashed them as the games approached and the last-minute bookings rolled in. Halo, again, meet spreadsheet.

But regardless, my algorithm hasn’t been this fun in a while, and for that, I am grateful.