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Good morning, readers. This week was a blitz of news, so much of it that it's hard to parse through what's what. As the war in Iran continues, so does the impact on the travel industry. One of the things that we've noticed at Skift is how much of a cottage industry has sprung up around private flights out of the Gulf.
But you don't need a private jet to feel it. Regular passengers — families, business travelers, people just trying to get home — are getting hit with fares that would make a first-class cabin blush. Skift's own analysis found airlines charging up to 20 times normal prices on routes out of the UAE. An Etihad flight from Abu Dhabi to Kochi that cost $131 last March – $2,555 this week. Abu Dhabi to London on Etihad went from $298 to nearly $5,000. Dubai to Istanbul on Flydubai: $210 to $1,737.
Of the 92,000 flights scheduled in and out of the Middle East between late February and March 12, more than half were canceled, according to Cirium.
The airlines have their reasons, and some of them are legitimate. Airspace closures mean longer routes. Fuel prices are up 60% thanks to strikes on energy infrastructure and Iran's hold on the Strait of Hormuz. War-risk insurance isn't cheap. Air India is already rolling out expanded fuel surcharges. And as one aviation consultant told Skift, when airlines normally operate at 82-84% capacity, even a small reduction in available flights can push what's left to full occupancy — mechanically triggering sky-high last-seat fares.

Fine. But tell that to the traveler in Dubai whose Air India flight was canceled, only to see the same flight reappear on the airline's website at double the price. Or the guy who ended up flying to Muscat and taking a 10-hour bus through the desert to get back to Dubai because that was the affordable option.
And the ripples go well beyond airfare. Inbound arrivals to the Middle East could fall anywhere from 11 to 27 percent this year, according to Tourism Economics — a stunning reversal from the optimistic growth projections from before the conflict. Hotel operators like Majestic are already reporting cancellation rates north of 70%. The billions poured into Dubai's hospitality infrastructure were built on the assumption that the region's politics would not touch the hotel zone.
Flydubai, the only airline to respond to Skift's request for comment, said it is "taking every step" to keep fares as low as possible. Emirates, Etihad, Air India, and IndiGo said nothing.
In a somewhat related footnote, Canadian travel to the U.S. fell for the 13th straight month.
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THE SKIFT PODCAST NETWORK
Oil briefly crossed $100 a barrel, and the travel industry is already feeling the pressure.
I’m back from last week’s trip to Berlin and joined by Seth Borko for a wide-ranging conversation on the cost pressures building across travel. We start with the immediate question facing airlines: what happens when jet fuel spikes and the economics of flying start to break down?
We also unpack my real-time travel experience during a chaotic week of war headlines, as well as a partial government shutdown, TSA uncertainty, and Global Entry disruptions.
– Sarah Kopit



