The Beginning of the End of the Trump Era

Anything interesting happen since we last spoke? 

For me, the first “huh” moment on Tuesday night came when the AP called South Carolina for Dr. Annie Andrews. She was one of the first unexpected victories for the Democrats, in a night that would completely reorganize political power in Washington. 

From an industry perspective, I'm most interested in understanding whether the election will convince some of the millions of international travelers who have stayed away from the U.S. to give it another chance.

If my algorithms are to be believed, the answer may be yes. But we at Skift have some further — and far more data-driven — reasons to be optimistic.

Back in April 2025, just a few months into Trump's second term, my friend Seth Borko and his team at Skift Research surveyed travelers from Canada, Germany, India, Mexico, and the U.K. 

Nearly half (46%) said they were less likely to visit the U.S. because of Trump's presidency. And international visits did fall. 

But there was another number in that survey that seemed a long way off at the time. It’s very important right now. Our researchers found that 74% of those potential international travelers deterred by Trump said they would reconsider visiting once he was out of office.

Now, of course, the president is very much still in office. He's got more than two years left. 

But does this absolute spanking for the Republicans — after Trump told America to vote as if he were on the ballot — count? Does that German couple who have always wanted to see the Grand Canyon, but just couldn't stomach American politics, now think, Okay, America. Good enough. And book their tickets?

The first real test of whether the midterms moved that particular needle will come from a source much closer to home — from our neighbors to the north.

During Trump 2.0, the Canadians have held an impressively long grudge against the United States. And while the numbers are technically improving, car trips in September were still down 31.1% from two years earlier, and air trips were down 18.7%.

So will they start crossing the border more often? We'll get a better picture in mid-December, when November's numbers come in, the first full-ish month after the election. I wait with bated breath.

But for all the Democrats' celebrations Tuesday night, the legislative branch was never really the problem. Those have come largely from the executive branch, many directly from the president’s desk through executive orders, proclamations, and agency rules.

Consider the past year. The administration imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and ordered Lake Ontario renamed “Lake America.” A visa bond program now requires travelers from roughly 50 countries to put down deposits of up to $20,000, with visa issuance in the pilot countries plunging 83%. And there's now a $750 fee to jump the visa interview line.

None of those policies goes poof because Democrats won Congress. But what will happen starting in January? Oversight, investigations, and control over the money. That's not insignificant. But it can't magically undo the president's executive actions. 

In the meantime, there's a more immediate headache: the potential for a December 11 government shutdown while Republicans still control both chambers. One would hope even a lame-duck Congress is tired of this particular sequel.

And finally, for anyone wondering how the president himself has responded to the election, here's one clue. On Wednesday, the morning after his party's defeat, Trump took to Truth Social to lament a topic we’ve mused about here at the Trump Effect: the arrival of standard time. The president posted, “It's so dark outside, so early.”  

I’d guess that’s how many Republicans are feeling today. It’s a whole lot darker, a whole lot earlier than expected.

The forces reshaping travel, AI entering the booking path, the rebuilt payments and distribution stack, the next chapter for aviation, and the rooms where senior women in travel set the agenda, don't stay in their lanes.

Skift convenes the operators, investors, and commercial leaders making the calls across every one of them, grounded in Skift Research.

Did the midterms just reopen America to international travelers? Sarah Kopit and Seth Borko talk through the inbound tourism outlook, Marriott’s 14% jump in fee revenue, and new Skift Research on why AI keeps recommending the same destinations.