Good morning, readers! It was a quiet week in Trump Effect land. I know. I was as surprised as you are.

It won't last. But this week the story isn't a Truth Social post or a surprise policy reversal. It’s that the Iran war has stopped feeling like breaking news and started feeling like the new normal. And the new normal, it turns out, is very expensive gas and jet fuel.

Here's the number that stopped me this week. U.S. airlines spent $5.06 billion on fuel in March alone. That's a 56% jump in a single month, according to the Department of Transportation. By Wednesday of this week, the spot price in major U.S. cities had already climbed to $4.18 a gallon. And it’s a lot more than that here in New York City.

This is the Iran war's most direct, unglamorous, and consequential impact on the American traveler. Not the airspace closures or the missile footage — though those are dramatic — but the slow, grinding impact of fuel costs working their way into the summer vacation.

The airlines have already started passing it along. Skift's airline reporter Meghna Maharishi reported this week that there have been five broad, industry-wide fare increases since the conflict began. American, Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue, and Alaska have all raised baggage fees.

For the ultra-low-cost carriers, it's been existential. Spirit Airlines, which ceased operations on May 2, cited the fuel spike explicitly in its court filing. "Recent geopolitical events have resulted in a massive and sustained increase in fuel prices, and a corresponding rapid and unexpected decline in the Debtors' liquidity situation," the filing read. Spirit CFO Fred Cromer said the airline absorbed an additional $100 million in fuel costs between March 1 and April 30 alone. "The material additional costs to Spirit proved to be too much for its available liquidity to absorb," he said. Frontier, for its part, says it can still be profitable. We'll see.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian, characteristically, framed it with a touch of corporate Darwinism: "I think high fuel prices, more than any other factor, have created that sense of urgency amongst the industry to either improve through performance, improve through rationalization, improve through consolidation, or face being eliminated."

So heading into the summer high season – not to mention the World Cup – fares are up, bag fees are up, a budget carrier is gone, and the industry is consolidating under pressure. It may have been a quiet week by Trump Effect standards, but it’s also the type that shows up on your credit card bill.

So have a great summer trip. Pack light.

I know that’s not everywhere, but it is here. America is a big place. I hope people come to visit. But for what it's worth, I didn't have a great answer for them in Bangkok. I'm not sure I have one now. But I am glad to be home.