We are only two Trump Effects away from the midterms. And even if you’re emotionally done with politics, the outcomes will matter for the travel industry. Here’s what’s at stake, the likely winners, and what to watch now.
Disclaimer: none of this is a prediction from me. I got out of that game a long time ago.
The Basics. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. Forecasters (brave souls, all) broadly agree that the House of Representatives will flip to the Democrats. The Senate is less clear.
Here’s where the forecasters and oddsmakers stand as of this writing:
Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the House and a 57% chance of winning the Senate.
Prediction markets are more bullish on Democrats. Both Kalshi and Polymarket users think Democrats have a 91% chance of controlling the House. Kalshi gives Dems a 69% chance of taking the Senate, while it’s 65% at Polymarket.
But if we’ve learned anything after two Trump administrations, it’s that polls and predictions are fickle. So, given that, here’s how the travel industry stands to fare under the three most likely scenarios.
Scenario 1: Democrats win both the House and the Senate. This looks the most likely right now.
Appropriations become the ultimate leverage. Money is power.
Oversight intensifies. Dems will likely hold hearings on issues like visa revocations and DHS conduct.
But there are limits. Most of the policies affecting the travel industry came from the president’s desk. The travel bans, visa bonds, and the national parks surcharge were all executive actions, as is the combative rhetoric aimed at American allies abroad. So the policy environment may not materially change until there’s a change in the White House.
Scenario 2: Democratic House, Republican Senate. Even if the House looks locked, the Senate has many races that are much tighter. If one chamber flips and the other doesn’t, expect:
House oversight in overdrive. Expect hearings pushed by members who will see themselves as a singular force for American checks-and-balances.
The Senate keeps the status quo. But the majority's size and political incentives could change.
Legislating gets harder. Expect political gridlock. That raises the likelihood of more shutdown-chicken in 2027. Airports and airlines should keep watch here.
Scenario 3: Republicans continue to hold both the House and the Senate.
The president takes a victory lap. The deregulation agenda continues. The State Department and DHS continue with their enforcement actions. Immigration and travel to the United States remain under heightened scrutiny. Continued confrontational rhetoric could further complicate international perceptions of the United States.
What happens on November 4?
We start talking about another government shutdown, naturally. Regardless of who wins. On September 2, President Trump signed a stopgap spending bill that funds the federal government through December 11. That leaves the outgoing Congress facing a funding deadline just 38 days after the election. If the results create a truly lame-duck Congress, watch for the winners to try to delay meaningful action until January, while the losers race to push through their priorities before relinquishing power.
Also watch Brand USA — the bipartisan unicorn. By most accounts, Brand USA got caught in political crossfire when Congress slashed its annual federal funding cap by 80%, from $100 million to $20 million, in 2025. Bipartisan legislation is now pending that would provide $160 million in additional funding for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. The VISIT USA Act is backed by Republican Senators Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, alongside Democrats Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Jacky Rosen of Nevada. In an interesting twist, President Trump's own FY2026 budget request called for fully funding Brand USA.
Midterm clock: Ten days and counting.
Get your free two-week preview to the new Skift Intelligence. Sign up here →
Skift Live Events
The forces reshaping travel, AI entering the booking path, the rebuilt payments and distribution stack, the next chapter for aviation, and the rooms where senior women in travel set the agenda don't stay in their lanes.
Skift convenes the operators, investors, and commercial leaders making the calls across every one of them, grounded in Skift Research.
Latest News
United’s Higher Fares Can’t Keep Up With Soaring Fuel Costs
October 21, 2026
Hotels Could Become One of Ixigo’s Two Biggest Businesses
October 19, 2026
Western Europe Drives Another Drop in Overseas Travel to the U.S.
October 16, 2026
Canadian Trips to U.S. Rise for Sixth Straight Month — but Remain Far Below 2024 Levels
October 13, 2026
Saudi Arabia’s Aviation Ambitions Meet a Week of Terror
October 12, 2026
The War Is Changing the Economics of Saudi Tourism
October 11, 2026
IndiGo Raises Fuel Charges for Third Time This Year as ATF Costs Surge
October 5, 2026
Turkish Airlines Places Its Largest Boeing Narrowbody Order as It Trades Scale for Margins
September 24, 2026
Skift Podcast
Travel Companies Are Ignoring a $100 Billion Market
The travel industry loves talking about Gen Z. But what about the generation already spending billions on travel?
