Happy weekend, readers. It’s a sunny spring Saturday in New York City. As you read this, I will be walking through Prospect Park in Brooklyn, taking in the sunshine and flowering trees.

I need this because it was a bit of a spicy week for humanity. Not gonna lie, by Tuesday evening, I had entertained more than a few dystopian scenarios, none of which I did particularly well in.

But, we're still here. The market is happy. I actually checked my 401(k) for the first time in forever, and it was only a little terrible. The trees are blooming. But it's going to be a long two weeks.

For those watching the price of oil, it will be no surprise that the war with Iran has nearly doubled jet-fuel costs, and carriers wasted no time passing those along to us. According to Skift's reporting, the conflict could cost U.S. airlines $24 billion in added jet-fuel expenses — a figure that could balloon to $100 billion or more.

The result: a wave of baggage fee hikes, fuel surcharges, and base fare increases that swept through the industry in recent weeks. Delta raised its first and second checked-bag fees by $10 — to $45 and $55, respectively — and its third bag by $50 to $200 on domestic and select short-haul international flights. United, JetBlue, Southwest, Alaska, and American all followed suit with similar increases. Air India and IndiGo have each raised fuel surcharges twice since the war began. Cathay Pacific hiked its surcharges 34%. Japan Airlines and ANA are raising theirs starting in June. It was a full-industry pile-on.

United CEO Scott Kirby has previously said he expects fares to increase by 20% — and that such an increase would likely hit demand. The airline is also forecasting oil to peak at $175 a barrel and stay elevated at $100 a barrel until at least 2027.

Here's the big question nobody's answered yet: with a ceasefire in place, are any of these fees coming back down?

We're only a few days in, so it's genuinely unclear. Airlines have never exactly been known for their eagerness to lower fees once raised. The last time carriers hiked bag fees — in 2024 — they cited inflation and rising fuel costs. Those fees did not come back down when conditions improved.