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New research from Brand USA shows Japan has nearly erased America’s lead among travelers in its most important markets.

Its survey of travelers from 11 key markets found 24% are likely to visit the U.S. in 2026, against 23% for Japan. In January of last year, the U.S. led Japan by more than eight percentage points. By August and October, Japan was ahead.

“We still lead year to date, but Japan is now our most direct competitor for the long-haul international traveler,” said Chelsea Benitez, Brand USA’s senior director of research and analytics, at a Tuesday board meeting.

Cost and the political climate are tied as the top deterrents, cited by nearly a quarter of travelers. The share who would recommend the U.S. fell from 64% in 2024 to 53% so far this year.

Brand USA says much of that demand has been deferred, with nearly 60% of travelers who picked other destinations still planning on a U.S. visit within five years. But the nation’s destination marketing arm could be fighting to win back travel with a thinner budget after Congress cut its federal funding match cap by 80%.

MARKETING MOMENT

Wanderlust is highlighting one standout travel marketing campaign each week. Know one we should feature? Email me at [email protected].

Croatia’s new tourism ad is meant to feel like a film, complete with its own movie star.

John Malkovich, a newly designated Croatian citizen, stars in the Croatian National Tourist Board’s “Croatia – I Hear It’s Beautiful.” The roughly six-minute video follows Malkovich’s reluctant journey through the country after discovering his Croatian heritage, with the actor slowly warming up to the destination after interactions with locals and stops at destinations like Dubrovnik, Krka National Park, and the country’s wine region. 

It’s a “more or less” true story, albeit a romanticized one, according to Leila Kresic-Juric, director of the Croatian National Tourist Board in North America, adding that the video helps showcase the destination’s diverse offerings beyond the beaches and “authentic” moments. 

“In the end, the authenticity is what travelers are looking for. And we are lucky to still offer that,” Kresic-Juric told Skift.

Americans — among the fastest-growing long-haul markets for Croatia, with tourist nights up nearly 10% between 2024 and 2025 according to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics — are one of the main targets for the campaign. 

As of this week, the video has more than 15 million views on YouTube and 39 million views across platforms, according to Kresic-Juric. She said the board is already eyeing a follow-up with more American celebrities of Croatian descent. 

Skift Global Forum East · Abu Dhabi · Dec 9

The Gulf’s capital supercycle is meeting its first real test, and the people deciding what travel does next will be in one room in Abu Dhabi.

Etihad, Emirates, Accor, Rotana and Trip.com Group lead a December 8-9 agenda built around six decisions every operator in the region is making right now, from capital allocation to moving AI out of pilot.

SPONSORED · LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS

In this Skift Global Forum video recap, Lindblad CEO Natalya Leahy explores how expedition travel can scale while preserving its unique appeal.

Headlines

Canadian Trips to U.S. Up Just 3% in October as Recovery Slows

November 12, 2026

Higher airfares haven’t stopped Canadians from browsing U.S. getaways. Getting them back to 2024 numbers is the harder sell.

Mantis Keeps Building in Gulf as Demand Shrinks to Locals

November 12, 2026

The war means Mantis’ Gulf properties are serving only a domestic market for now. Its long-term bet on the region, as it builds out its "circuit" tourism offer, depends on international travelers coming back.

Delhi’s Smog Collides With India’s Peak Tourism Season

November 11, 2026

Air quality in northern India has plummeted as the so-called pollution season gets underway. It is now a regular feature of traveling to the region in winter. Masks have emerged as a solution — a Band-Aid to a structural problem fueled by emissions.

Visit Oslo Follows Its Viral Anti-Ad With a Horror Christmas Musical

November 11, 2026

Visit Oslo needed a unique twist to its "Is It Even a City?" sequel to help fill hotels in the winter. Its project manager says the final result is almost as popular as the original.

What Happens When the Destination Comes Second?

November 11, 2026

Tourism marketing has to account for travelers whose plans begin with an experience rather than a place.

Ras Al Khaimah Airport Courts Wynn’s Jet Set but Waits on Airlines

November 11, 2026

Ras Al Khaimah’s airport is betting on Wynn’s new integrated resort and other luxury hotels to bring in five-star travelers. For now, it is upgrading the terminal it has and holding the new one until airlines commit. The resort’s delay pushes any payoff to late 2027.

Japan Is Closing in on the U.S. as High Costs and Politics Deter Travelers, Brand USA Says

November 10, 2026

Research shows the U.S. losing ground to Japan as costs and politics turn travelers away. Brand USA is betting the lost demand is deferred, not gone, but its budget to win it back is shrinking.

Hotel Chains’ Middle East Recovery Stalls as Peak Season Arrives

November 10, 2026

The Middle East is a small slice of most hotel chains’ revenue but a bigger part of their pipelines. So far, they’re holding to their development plans, even as a second weak peak season looms.

Can Venezuela Build a Different Kind of High-End Tourism?

November 9, 2026

Adriana Cisneros sees an opportunity for Venezuela to build a distinctive, conservation-minded tourism industry before the international hotel brands arrive. Whether that vision becomes reality will depend on political stability, security, and crucially, the choices made by the country's tourism leadership.

Wynn Holds UAE Casino Date but Weighs How to Open Amid War

November 6, 2026

Wynn is holding to its September 2027 date for the UAE’s first casino resort but it will now decide in February what form the opening takes. The U.S.-Iran war means its first customers may travel from down the road in Dubai and elsewhere in the UAE, rather than being the international guests it primarily wants.

Spirit Airlines’ $10 million data sale to Google adds employee privacy protections after unions push back, AirAsia’s fuel-driven retreat hands Malaysia Airlines the lead on India routes by default, and the U.S. slips as the top long-haul destination with Japan now closing the gap.

On today’s Skift Daily Briefing, Tasmin Lockwood, Skift’s Climate and Experiences Reporter, breaks down why workers winning real guardrails in a bankruptcy fire sale matters for the next test of whether they hold, why rivals are gaining share from AirAsia by default in a market short on planes, and why deferred demand for the U.S. could become lost demand without a rebuilt budget.

Skift Travel 200