Searching Less, Paying More

Hello travel readers,

Saniya and Athira, research analysts, here with the September read on global travel. 

The Skift Travel Health Index (STHI) came in at 99, a 1% dip from last year. Nobody is panicking yet, but travel’s momentum is cooling.

Before we jump into the details for the month, here is a quick refresher for anyone just starting to follow the index. The STHI is Skift Research’s proprietary index that tracks performance across 22 major economies, now using 76 data points from 21 partners across aviation, hotels, vacation rentals, and in-destination activities.

We benchmark each month against the same month in the previous year.

The STHI dipped slightly to 99, part of a longer-term trend showing clear signs of an overall slowdown in global travel momentum. UN Tourism says international arrivals grew just 0.4% in the first half of this year, sliding from 2% growth in the first quarter, to a decline in the second. It has cut its full-year forecast to 1–2%, down from 3–4%.

And here's where things get interesting. You would expect search activity and actualized performance to move together. But even though travelers seem less interested in taking trips this year, parts of the industry are still making money. Our read is that travelers may be searching less and booking closer to the date, but taking trips remains important to them.

Our destinations index, which tracks flight and hotel searches, fell to 88, 12% below last year. Data show that inbound flight searches grew in only six of our tracked markets, with marked decreases in the UAE (-37%) and Hong Kong (-18%).

Skift Travel Health Index by Sector 

Travelers might be hesitating on long-haul trips, but those heading to Europe remain pretty decisive. The European Travel Commission noted a drop in overall interest, yet the share of those who have already booked a flight stayed the same compared to a year earlier. 

Vacation rentals led the September index at 105, up 5% year-on-year. But the U.S. and Europe are achieving this growth in entirely different ways.

In the U.S., it's all about volumes. According to KeyData, U.S. short-term rental RevPAR  increased 24% year-on-year in September, driven by a 13% increase in paid occupancy and a 10% rise in average daily rate (ADR).

In Europe, higher prices are doing the heavy lifting. Short-term rental RevPAR rose 9% in September, fueled by a 9% ADR hike, while occupancy stayed flat and demand nights actually dipped. Forward bookings, though, were 13% slower than those picked up this time last year. Travelers may be losing confidence in travel, or they might just be acting more cautiously and booking much closer to their travel dates. Understandable, considering the volatility across the globe at the moment.

Europe Short-Term Rental Performance (September 2026)

Source: AirDNA, data as of October 2026

Vacation rentals are not the only sector driving prices up. Airlines are also seeing an uptick in airfares. In our last report, we explained how geopolitical tensions have driven up fuel rates more than 50%. As a result, global airfares are up 12% in September, and are currently tracking about 10% higher for October.

September has left us with a really fascinating standoff: The top of the funnel, which is travel intent, is weakening, but we are seeing accommodation revenues still holding up. 

The world is growing cautious, dreaming and searching less, and maybe booking at the last minute. But people are still traveling, for now. The industry is leaning on pricing power to offset rising costs and flatter volumes. It might not be the healthiest long-term strategy, but it is proving resilient in the short term.

Will bookings eventually cave to match weakening search intent, or will traveler interest rebound? We will be watching closely to see who blinks first!

Until next month,

Saniya and Athira

Research Analysts, Skift

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